Thursday, April 12, 2007

The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

Hey all,
Thanks for the well-wishes in my last post! I just caught the weekly episode of "The Office" (hilarious) and figured I'd carry over the betting theme of the episode to my race in Boston so step on up!

Whoever can come the closest to guessing my finish time at Boston will get some token gift. No, not a car or anything that will require insurance when I send it. ;-) Also, I'm sure it'll probably have a swoosh on it so beware if any of you break out in hives when you get in contact with any Nike products! The beauty is that the price of admission into this contest is zilch, zero, nada. So step on up...no hurt feelings on my end so guess away via a comment to this post.

**Update also since Jessi asked- no over / under penalty in your guesses. I will be basing this on whomever is closest to my finish time, regardless of whether their guess is over or under. So no, you can't use the "Price Is Right" strategy and guess 1 hour assuming that everyone is guessing "over" my finish time!!**

For any lurkers who may choose to participate, let me provide some background for this lil' run on Monday.

THE GOOD
My running was coming along very well this year. I PR'd in early February with a 3:07 finish at the Pac Shoreline Marathon. I felt pretty fresh during the race with no issues except for the hot weather. Speeds at all training paces had bumped up a notch. I was running pretty decent mileage in the 50's- high 60's - life was good!

THE BAD
I'm currently running injured. I'm having issues with my left foot that has severely limited the mileage in the last 1-1.5 months leading into Boston. The latest issue is some forefoot pain in the last week that seriously had me questioning whether I should do this race. It seems to have backed off a bit but I'm still wondering how it will feel when I'm 15-16 miles into the race!

THE UGLY
Has anyone seen the current weather forecast for Boston. It's almost funny...I said ALMOST. Depending upon where you look, they have forecast WINDY conditions with either RAIN OR SNOW. It just sounds nuts to me after the heatfest at Boston for the last 2 out of 3 years. Not the best conditions for running but hey, I'm from Oregon and have learned a bit from training with Steven. You gotta just get'er done!

Ok, so that's a cliff notes version of the pertinent facts. Here are my finish times from the last 3 Boston Marys:
04 3:38:22
05 3:29:59
06 3:22:33
Don't forget, Boston isn't a PR course and anyone who has hammered their quads on all the downhills early only to end up a mess in the last 5 miles can surely relate!

Ok, don't be shy. I'll go first...barring this silly injury, I'd be shooting for a sub 3:10 finish based on how my training WAS going early on but I was dealt a new set of cards and it ain't pretty. With the low mileage, injury, headwinds and rain / snow- I'm going to guess 3:17:30. Pretty ambitious based on my current fitness but I really believe in this runner! ;-) Here's a recommendation for anyone trying to win this lil contest- you might want to pad that number just a bit!!

#4167 is out! I'll see you on the other side.

*Peace*

14 Comments:

Blogger JeffM said...

You've improved by 9 and then 7 minutes for Boston, so it should be a 5 minute improvement this time. But you already guessed that time. So I'll say 3:18:23.

10:51 PM  
Blogger Iron said...

I'll go with 3:19:37

5:15 AM  
Blogger Papa Louie said...

Based on your confidence level and weather forcast I'll say you'll still PR Boston with a time of 3:20:40. Call me on Saturday evening if you want to carbo load some.

6:54 AM  
Blogger SkiRough said...

I did see the weather report, and also the e-mail they sent to all the racers. It's going to be an "interesting" race to say the least.

7:28 AM  
Blogger JayTri said...

Been reading youre blog for awhile and I think you can pull a 3:16:23.
Good luck and have fun.

JayTri

8:43 AM  
Blogger Jessi said...

Closest without going over, or just closest?

10:07 AM  
Blogger Crash said...

3:14:32 - Don't let me down.

And I better be getting 10,000:1 odds...

11:32 AM  
Blogger Mike said...

Hey Jess!
Just to make it easy, I'm going with whoever is closest to my finish time. No over / under penalty.

Just don't bum me out with a 6 hour projection though! ;-)

12:14 PM  
Blogger Spokane Al said...

I'm thinking that with your rest, natural speed, the Wellesley girls cheering you on and being this is Boston, I am going with a time of 3:12.

3:15 PM  
Blogger Darren said...

Mike!
Being as today is Friday the 13, I'll go with:
3:13:13.

Here's hoping you have a great race and wicked time. Cheers bro!

5:02 PM  
Blogger Jessi said...

I'm going with 3:18:46... I think you have a pretty good sense of your fitness, and if you said 3:17:30 plus a buffer, then that's what I'll bet on!

7:37 PM  
Blogger hazben said...

Dude - with all the lost time training, recurring injury, poor shoe choices (Crocs?!!??), cutting the good shoes you have (see post on 4/1 - April fools!?), swimming and biking instead of running, yada, yada, I'm thinking you'll kick the can this time around and post a sordid DNF in tears, too many layers and in your crocs under a snowy sky... Then again, you're Mike "The IronMan Grier", the dedicated training stud, a 70 mile-a-week freak, the bike Nike, milage mania run to germania go-getter, swim bike and run till I get better, future IM qualifyer with sky the limits potential (and time to train), runaway train, screaming new bike and wheels to kill, scary fast running blast, Mike Grier. My grandios prediction all things considered is a honarable and respectable 3:17:45 . Peg it brother!

8:14 PM  
Blogger Darrell said...

I wouldn't wish those conditions on anybody. I'll throw out 3:12:07

10:38 PM  
Blogger canan said...

Thanks...

Canan Eoy
Health

2:53 PM  

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